Energy on the Farm: Understanding Today’s Headline-Driven Markets
Apr 20, 2026
Written by: Isaac Imsland, Vice President of Energy
Crude Reacts Lower
Crude oil moved lower at the end of last week as headlines continued to point toward de-escalation in the Middle East. News of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, along with Iran announcing that the Strait of Hormuz is now open for commercial shipping, has eased some of the immediate supply concerns that had been pushing prices higher. As of Friday morning, crude was down sharply for the day, reflecting that shift in sentiment. That said, uncertainty still lingers around how smoothly flows will return and how long the ceasefire will hold, which should continue to provide underlying support to the market.
Jet Fuel Supply Strain Signals Broader Diesel Tightness
We’re also starting to see the impact of global supply disruptions show up more clearly in refined products, especially jet fuel. Europe is already dealing with tightening supply, and there are growing concerns about potential flight disruptions heading into the summer travel season.
A big part of the issue is Europe’s reliance on imported jet fuel, much of which comes from the Middle East. With ongoing conflict and shipping constraints, that supply chain is under pressure. Globally, demand for jet fuel and similar products remains strong, and when you combine that with restricted flows, it tightens the overall distillate market.
For diesel, this matters. Jet fuel and diesel compete in the same part of the barrel, so when one gets tight, it tends to support the other. That’s something to keep in mind as we move through planting and into peak demand seasons.
U.S. Market Showing More Resilience Than Global Markets
One thing working in our favor domestically is that the U.S. market is somewhat insulated compared to the rest of the world. Crude prices here have eased more than we’re seeing in Europe and Asia, largely due to releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and increased imports.
Those additional barrels have helped keep supply flowing to U.S. refiners, which has softened some of the price pressure locally. It doesn’t mean we’re immune, but it does mean we’re in a better position than many global markets right now. That regional difference is something we’re watching closely, especially as it relates to diesel pricing here at home.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, this is a market that will continue to move on headlines. If we see real progress toward a longer-term ceasefire, there’s room for prices to soften a bit more. But on the flip side, any setbacks—whether it’s renewed conflict, tighter sanctions, or continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz—could quickly push prices back higher.
Until global shipping flows normalize in a meaningful way, it’s unlikely the market fully removes the geopolitical risk premium. And with distillate supplies already tight, that keeps underlying support in place for diesel and propane markets.
Bottom line: expect volatility to stick around, and don’t be surprised if prices move quickly in either direction based on the next headline.
Crude Reacts Lower
Crude oil moved lower at the end of last week as headlines continued to point toward de-escalation in the Middle East. News of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, along with Iran announcing that the Strait of Hormuz is now open for commercial shipping, has eased some of the immediate supply concerns that had been pushing prices higher. As of Friday morning, crude was down sharply for the day, reflecting that shift in sentiment. That said, uncertainty still lingers around how smoothly flows will return and how long the ceasefire will hold, which should continue to provide underlying support to the market.
Jet Fuel Supply Strain Signals Broader Diesel Tightness
We’re also starting to see the impact of global supply disruptions show up more clearly in refined products, especially jet fuel. Europe is already dealing with tightening supply, and there are growing concerns about potential flight disruptions heading into the summer travel season.
A big part of the issue is Europe’s reliance on imported jet fuel, much of which comes from the Middle East. With ongoing conflict and shipping constraints, that supply chain is under pressure. Globally, demand for jet fuel and similar products remains strong, and when you combine that with restricted flows, it tightens the overall distillate market.
For diesel, this matters. Jet fuel and diesel compete in the same part of the barrel, so when one gets tight, it tends to support the other. That’s something to keep in mind as we move through planting and into peak demand seasons.
U.S. Market Showing More Resilience Than Global Markets
One thing working in our favor domestically is that the U.S. market is somewhat insulated compared to the rest of the world. Crude prices here have eased more than we’re seeing in Europe and Asia, largely due to releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and increased imports.
Those additional barrels have helped keep supply flowing to U.S. refiners, which has softened some of the price pressure locally. It doesn’t mean we’re immune, but it does mean we’re in a better position than many global markets right now. That regional difference is something we’re watching closely, especially as it relates to diesel pricing here at home.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, this is a market that will continue to move on headlines. If we see real progress toward a longer-term ceasefire, there’s room for prices to soften a bit more. But on the flip side, any setbacks—whether it’s renewed conflict, tighter sanctions, or continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz—could quickly push prices back higher.
Until global shipping flows normalize in a meaningful way, it’s unlikely the market fully removes the geopolitical risk premium. And with distillate supplies already tight, that keeps underlying support in place for diesel and propane markets.
Bottom line: expect volatility to stick around, and don’t be surprised if prices move quickly in either direction based on the next headline.